- Anubhav Mishra, in collaboration with Edha Singh, Arohi Sachar, and Devansh Pandey
(If you have fallen for traps such as ‘climate change is a hoax’, ‘climate change is not as bad as it sounds’, and/or ‘climate change is bad but little to some action can help us’, then this is for you.)
Humans are an optimistic species. The trust in the fact that ‘the future will be better than the present’ is the basis for our socio-economic systems. This faith in the future has allowed us to multiply collective human fortunes, redefine morality, and systematically multiply degrees of human influence everywhere. In the last 500 years, human achievements have ranged from wiping out some of the deadliest diseases to stepping on the moon. Economy, in real terms, has exponentially grown over the last few centuries, and even though in some countries hunger and poverty are crucial problems, most of the world fare better in terms of nutrition and abundance of food and other necessary commodities in 2020 than in 1520.
However, all of that is at stake, and we simply fail in taking this problem seriously, though it is crucial for ‘our’ survival. We are doing so little to mitigate the risks and to adapt that it begs the question of why?
The ‘Real Problem’
Since the advent of the Industrial Revolution, the most important period in human history when newer production patterns enhanced productivity and scale to improve access to cheaper goods, the planet has warmed 1 degree Celsius and at this pace, it is set to grow about 3 degrees Celsius by 2100. This warming is primarily due to the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, but the devastating impact will be felt far beyond air in coastal communities. Due to rapid warming, the mean sea level will rise to flood coastal towns and cities and to displace the most densely populated regions of the world, and disrupt coastal economic engines.
More than 150 million people are set to lose their livelihoods, seeking refuge as ‘environmental migrants’ and a billion more will have to live with insufficient infrastructure for protection from the disastrous effects. Cities like Mumbai, Bangkok, and Shanghai will be prone to perennial flooding.
If climate change remains unaddressed, the socio-economic future will stand in ruins. Contrary to popular belief, 2050 is not very far away and 30 years is not a lot of time, and the current generations will be on the frontlines in this battle for survival. However, there is simply an absence of planning or in some other cases (several world leaders, in fact), there is a denial of the problem itself.
The nature of this event is unprecedented, any imagination therefore can be questioned. It is as if someone in 2012 had asked the global leaders to invest in health infrastructure, to prevent the spread of infectious diseases and epidemics when health experts were able to foretell about a disease similar to coronavirus. The problem hardly lies in the assessment. The science is simple, by terming unplanned and unsustainable growth as ‘development’ and calling excessing consumerism as progress, the human species has redefined its relationship with nature, from coexistence to mindless exploitation. As humans emit more and more greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide, the earth inevitably warms up in just a few years, thereby disrupting the nature and patterns of livelihoods and social structures.
The ‘real problem’ is about understanding the gravity of climate change and, in really simple terms, taking it seriously. Of course, one could blame political leaders for being short-sighted and selfish for not addressing climate change but, ultimately, the solving of any crisis boils down to how seriously is the political class compelled to take it, by the people. It is short-term problems are what people are usually concerned about, so systems of popular sovereignty (call it liberal democracies or People’s Republic) often forget there is a future beyond the term of political appointments.
What is concerning is an absence of definitive public opinion demanding our ‘leaders’ to formulate a clear plan, typically because humans are unable to ‘see’ the devastation.
Climate Change and Human Psyche: Why do we not fear climate disasters?
Slowly but surely the scientific community has been proceeding towards a consensus that if the ongoing climate change is not addressed, the results can be devastating. Then why do we not care about it? What makes human response so weak that we are not able to address a problem which is lying in front of us for years now?
The answer lies in the human psyche. The central issue is that climate change is too slow and gentle to be ‘visible’. Humans simply cannot see their ill-effects. Since we are not able to see the negative consequences, we prefer other issues over climate change, even though there are hardly any such issues that require such importance and resources. The ‘visibility’ of climate change lies in empirical analysis, and it follows as a trend rather than a series of sudden events. Undoubtedly, landmark events do occur, but their frequency, as of now, is low. Unfortunately, by the time climate change is ‘visible’, it will be too late.
So, there is a need to disseminate all the knowledge gathered by climate observers to the general public and make efforts to help the general public ‘visualize’ the real effects of climate change. This will not just build the necessary public opinion to safeguard and protect food security, livelihoods of the marginalized, and secure our socio-economic capacity. So there are no choices other than ‘visualizing’ the catastrophes associated with climate change making it ‘personal’.
Thus, we here present the world through the lenses of climate disasters, which will help you, the (future) voter to picture your long-term future better (all of the incidents presented are real and data is scientific, fact-checked, and from reliable sources, with minimal speculative comments, other than credible expert opinions):
(Every problem has been assessed based on 2 points: 1. the definition and extent of the problem; 2. current international preparations and what we could expect in the future.)
1. Widespread Climate Migration
According to the Brookings Institution, in 2017, there were about 68.5 million forcibly displaced persons.
Around a third of these (approximately 22-24 million people) were displaced because of ‘sudden onset’ of weather events like droughts, forest fires, flooding, etc. This number is set to increase about 10-fold to 200 million people (an estimate provided by Professor Norman Myers CMG). While other estimates put this number in a range of 25 to 1 billion people (accepted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), on both ends the number is humongous and the extent of climate disasters is unknown. Unfortunately, climate disasters have already begun. While climate change is not the direct cause of many of these natural disasters, it has increased their intensity and frequency.
Often these disasters are so frequent that they overlap to devastate existing livelihoods and businesses.
An example of this can be seen in California as it faced a number of its largest forest fires in 2020, which experts point out to be, “is more than just an accumulation of individual catastrophies”
In several regions around the world like Central America and South-east Asia, unpredictable weather patterns have disturbed food production and the range of optimum temperature has been shifting away from the tropical latitudes. This has pushed several small farmers to uproot their rural communities and move towards cities, river valleys, and coasts. The destruction of food crops in these regions has destroyed their livelihoods but the scale is too high to affect people on an individual basis. Extremely hot zones (like Sahara) are set to rise from 1% to 19% of the total landmass by 2070, which has the potential to displace millions and lead to desertification of huge swathes of farmland, jeopardizing food security.
The impact of climate migration is dependent on socio-economic inequality. Rural communities, especially the ones fleeing, tend to have low per capita income and rarely hold any political power in the society. Thus, it can be said that these are people who are on the margins of society and are being pushed further out to
the brink of starvation and doom. Thus, it is imperative to keep in mind the structural inequality and how this will have a compound effect on other social issues. The direction of this migration is from farmlands to urban areas, and will probably have to settle into informal housing like slums if there is a lack of proactive action by the power-holders in the society. The growth of populations into the lower strata of the urban societies can lead to social unrest and tension, due to lack of critical infrastructure.
Migrants fleeing northwards using freight rail lines, away from the tropics, in Mexico
Source- nytimes.com
Climate migration, though, the most serious, is also the most contentious of all climate-related issues. While migrants seem to be moving towards cities and away from the tropics in search of livelihoods, there is apprehension in the developed countries that the migrants may flood in and cause a significant demographic shift. This has brought all mechanisms for addressing this problem to a halt to such an extent that it is even contentious to the term ‘the people fleeing due to sudden natural events.’ There is an absence of an established legal term, so they are mostly called ‘climate refugees’ (in absence of a better alternative).
2. A Rising Sea Level
The science behind a rising sea level is simple, increasing temperature melts glaciers and expands the volume of the ocean, which then floods coastal land and pushes the coastline further into the landmass. However, we often ignore its effects.
This logically means that certain low-lying areas will be permanently submerged and many others will be prone to excessive flooding almost throughout the year, in just a few years. If the amount of carbon emissions is not curbed and sea levels rise by just a foot or two, then about 204 million people will face flooding risks by 2050. This number is set to increase to 253 million by 2100 (the number may be higher as researchers have not taken the population increase in coastal regions into account). As climate migration pushes more people towards coasts and cities, some of the regions will be going through their battles for survival. The threat of cyclones, high tides, and heavy rainfall will be more frequent and intense, further adding to the problem.
Rising Sea Levels and its effect on the city of Mumbai in 2050
Source- nytimes.com
Its economic impact cannot be assessed, since experts do not know the number of resources that may be drained for adaptation and mitigation of risks, but one can imagine the woes when economic engines of the world like New York, London, Mumbai, and Shanghai are at risk of survival.
3. Immense Psychological Damage
Humans tend to forget that climate change will not only cause external destruction but internal turmoil as well. The human psyche will be greatly affected by this looming threat, which sooner or later will change the way we look at the world. The expanding research literature on climate change and mental health is done by the National Center for Biotechnology Information includes increasing evidence that extreme weather events—which are more frequent and intense under a changing climate can trigger post-traumatic stress disorder, major depressive disorder, anxiety, depression, complicated grief, survivor guilt, vicarious trauma, recovery fatigue, and substance abuse.
Potential global work hours lost per sector due to heat, 2000–18
Source- The Lancet Countdown 2019
Climate Change is a complicated process that is going to affect all of us in different ways.
According to a report published by the American Psychological Association and Climate for Health in March 2017, the authors believe that “Climate changes affect agriculture, infrastructure, and liveability, which in turn affect occupations and quality of life and can force people to migrate.”
This will eventually lead to a loss of personal and professional identity, loss of social support structures, and no sense of control and autonomy. People will eventually indulge in maladaptive coping mechanisms, which we can see happening right now: denial, projection, and rationalization are the passive ways people avoid talking about global warming and how vulnerable we are.
Lastly, add fear and helplessness because of the world-changing in irreversible ways and we have an additional source of stress: eco-anxiety. This is a rising phenomenon in today’s generation where the lack of power and resources to deal with the impending doom causes an excessive amount of stress. Individuals with eco-anxiety begin to see themselves as insignificant because, no matter what they do, the world around them will never be the same again.
Lack of public health infrastructure and lack of will to invest in the betterment of mental health is likely to ruin the mental health profile of people around the world, most particularly in the underdeveloped tropical countries, which will face the worst of climate migration and crop failure.
4. Loss of Livelihoods and A Good-bye to Civilised Societies
Climate change by its very nature affects agriculture and rural communities. It results in changes in precipitation patterns, flooding some areas while droughts in others and causes subsequent crop failures. This uproots rural agricultural communities and forces them to migrate to other parts, often in penury. Reduction in agricultural productivity poses a huge question mark to food security throughout the world.
While producer small-scale businesses and large manufacturers will be able to augment their production patterns to meet new consumer demand (say more demand for air conditioners instead of heaters due to high rise in temperature), the problem goes beyond industry and labour. It touches the cornerstone of a rules-based order.
With increasing rates of migration to urban and coastal areas, there is going to be an exponential increase in the population, for which critical infrastructure will be grossly inadequate. Such a situation can give rise to social tensions and due to high rates of unemployment, poverty, and lack of resources at the government’s disposal.
Several observers have often pointed out the relationship between the Syrian Civil War and the hastened desertification of the Syrian countryside due to climate change which caused widespread crop failures and water scarcity. With the Assad-led Government unable to help, the discontentment among the people rose to such an extent that when it intersected with political suppression, the unrest burst out in the form of a civil war.
Drought affected Syria (a drought response map from 2008) by the Ministry of Agriculture
Securing livelihoods, therefore, is imperative for a civilized society. The principle is simple: a rules-based order cannot be based on the scarcity of resources. If humans cannot fulfil their basic needs like food and shelter, their instinct cannot allow them to follow statutes, treaties, and constitutions, at the cost of risking starvation and death. Like it or not, no one follows the law when it is a matter of survival.
The Intersection of Climate Change with Inequalities and Injustice
When thought about, intuitively, ethics seem directly related to climate change. Global warming is the perfect amalgamation of the three ethical issues faced: the tragedy of commons, skewed vulnerabilities, and intergenerational justice.
Another issue is the distribution of damage. Contrary to popular belief, climate change does not affect everybody equitably. Those dependent on agriculture, on the margins of the socio-economic framework and in poorer countries stand to lose much more than their more privileged counterparts. The tragedy of commons is that despite global change being a common issue faced by all countries, each continues to act independently for their interests, inadvertently spoiling the situation further. Developed nations are the cause behind the major amount of global change but underdeveloped nations pay for it just as much. Small islands or third-world nations cannot hold powerful nations accountable and this poses the second problem- skewed vulnerabilities. An example of this would be that most Pacific islands are set to submerge completely due to rising sea levels by 2100, although they have the smallest carbon footprints.
These underdeveloped nations also lack the funds and provisions to tackle the massive impacts climate change can bring such as flooding of coasts. There has been no development on this front since 2015. While the Paris Agreement provided for a $100 billion Climate Finance fund, which is most likely to remain unmet, especially after the United States’ withdrawal in 2018.
The last issue is of intergenerational justice. It is deemed unfair to the coming generations to bear the costs of the previous and the present generations. The coming generations will be born into a constantly increasing carbon emission atmosphere. This is not a diffusible issue and will affect for millennia to come. Going along with this is the realization that humans have a moral duty towards non-humans. It is an obligation to protect flora and fauna from detrimental outcomes.
Lastly, we need to re-evaluate our dimensions of wellbeing. Currently, despite criticisms nations continue to use Gross Domestic Product as a measure of development. Some of the new theories proposed include hedonic well-being and eudaimonic well-being. Both of these reflect mental and psychological outcomes which are seen as subjective reactions to objective situations. These evaluate the social needs of humans and hence global well-being is accounted for. Loss of natural wealth also needs to be factored into ‘development’. Humans' well-being is simply more than futile and mindless consumption, with no compassion and empathy for nature and those who remain dependent on it.
The coronavirus pandemic provides us with an immense opportunity to shift public expenditure towards the promotion of renewable energy sources and maintenance of natural resources, but the leaders of the world fail to acknowledge climate change’s gravity. While lockdowns have brought a temporary resurgence of nature in the urban areas, it is not enough. Environmental degradation has been accepted for the sake of profits and revenue for many decades, and governments are keen to allow and promote this exploitation at a larger scale.
The Government of India has announced its plans to auction coal blocks, while the Trump Administration has been pivotal in dismantling nearly 70 environmental norms to promote the industry at the cost of nature throughout its term.
This sets a dangerous trend for the future.
Global? Local?
Climate change affects every nation and person around the world. Of course, we cannot battle this new socio-politico-economic issue individually. The real contention is whether climate change should be fought on a national level or there should be an attempt to synergize national strengths.
The coronavirus pandemic is testimony to the fact that nature does not discriminate. It certainly does not understand national borders, nor does it see the status, gender, or social class. Thus, climate change is a global issue and global issues cannot be solved nationally. Imagine if India can offset all of its carbon emissions by 2030 but all the other countries continue the destruction, how much is going to change.
To mitigate the risks of climate change, 2020 our last chance, the LAST CHANCE. This is not alarmism but a principle that one cannot negotiate with science and nature. It is the question of the survival of the human species, and we cannot just ‘not care.’ This process of adaptation and migration requires us to take the whole crisis seriously. The only advantage humans have in this battle is that, when taken collectively, we are more than just a sum of ourselves. We deserve and need better than mere lip service to progressive environmentalism, but that is not possible for most of us, till we can ‘see’ the effects of climate change. The course of action is simple: to fight climate change, stop ignoring, and make it personal.
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