By Advik Mohan, Grade 12
On 3rd January 2020, the world was stunned on hearing of the assassination of the Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in a US drone strike authorized by President Donald Trump. The assassination significantly escalated tensions between the two countries and brought them both on the verge of a destructive war. But how and why do the US and Iran have a conflict going on between them?
The US-Iran animosity towards each other dates back to 1951, when the left-wing nationalist prime minister of Iran Mohammed Mossadegh, who was opposed to foreign involvement in Iran, nationalized the British–owned oil company in Iran.
In 1953, in retaliation , the British along with the Americans backed a military coup that overthrew Mossadegh and established an absolute monarchy in Iran. For the next 26 years, Iran was governed by a brutal monarchy. The 1979 Iranian Revolution saw the US-supported Shah of Iran being overthrown. After the revolution, a theocratic Islamic republic was declared in Iran which was against Western influence and interference in Iran’s affairs. Relations with the US soon reached a new low. Iran began demanding that the deposed ruler- the Shah, who was undergoing cancer treatment in the US, be extradited back to Iran so that he could be put on trial for his ‘crimes’.
In November 1979, a group of Iranian students stormed the US embassy in Tehran and took over 52 Americans hostage. The US then broke off all formal diplomatic ties with Iran and froze all Iranian assets. In January 1981, after 444 days, the hostages were finally released. Formal diplomatic relations between the two countries have never been restored. The US designated Iran a state sponsor of terrorism in 1985, a tag that has never been removed. In the Iran- Iraq War from 1980 to 1988, the US supported Iraq against Iran.
The new Iranian regime governed by Islamic principles was in-charge of a Shia dominated population.
Iran aimed to export its brand of revolution across the entire Middle Eastern region and cultivated proxy forces that supported it across countries. The country also came into conflict with the Sunni Arab monarchies in the region like Saudi Arabia that were close allies of the US. The US began to give support to these monarchies against Iran. Throughout the 1980s, Iran, through its proxy forces like the Hezbollah group in Lebanon, carried out terrorist bombings of Western embassies and other targets. After the end of its destructive war with Iraq, Iran limited its revolutionary activities across the region and relations with the US improved but only marginally. However, all that changed after the terrorist attacks in the US on September 11, 2001. US President George W. Bush declared a ‘War on Terror’ and said that Iran was part of an ‘Axis of Evil’, something that significantly worsened relations between the two countries. After the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, Iran began building a large network of Shia militant groups across the region aimed at serving its interests and expanding its influence in the Middle East.
Iran’s nuclear program was another contributor to tensions between the two countries. In 2002, it was revealed that Iran had facilities capable of building a nuclear bomb.
Although Iran never admitted to the existence of nuclear facilities, the US, fearing that a nuclear-armed Iran would pose a significant threat to its interests and allies, imposed economic sanctions that damaged Iran’s economy but did nothing to deter the progress of its nuclear program. The US President, Barack Obama attempted to come to an agreement with Iran, and in 2015, the Iran nuclear deal was signed. The deal removed sanctions on Iran, reduced its uranium stockpile by about 97% and significantly hindered Iran’s ability to make a nuclear bomb. The deal was hailed as a significant step in the direction for peace although critics said that the deal covered nothing about Iran’s support for terrorist groups or its development of ballistic missiles.
Iran-US ties took a significant turn for the worse after the election of Donald Trump as US President. Trump denounced the nuclear deal as being supportive of Iran’s terrorist activities and took a tougher approach towards Iran than Obama had.
In May 2018, Trump withdrew the US out of the Iran nuclear deal and announced that sanctions would be reimposed on Iran. This decision caused a significant blow to Iran’s economy which has since been on a decline and has seen a dip in oil exports. Iran has responded to the US through activities like bombing of oil fields in Saudi Arabia and shooting down US military drones, contributing to the ongoing cycle of violence. The crisis significantly escalated from December 2019. First, an Iranian- backed militant group in Iraq attacked a US military base, killing an American citizen. Then, pro-Iran protestors attacked the US embassy in the Iraqi capital of Baghdad.
The US vowed retaliation and did so, killing a top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani along with others in a drone strike in Iraq in January 2020. Soleimani was one of the top Iranian military figures and was said to be responsible for several attacks on American interests in the Middle East. The Soleimani assassination led to a sharp increase in tensions in the Middle East with the threat of a major war breaking out hovering for several days. Iran launched retaliatory strikes on US military bases in Iraq, firing more than a dozen ballistic missiles. A passenger plane from Tehran to Kiev was also accidentally shot down by Iran, killing over 170 people. Although both Iran and the US attempted to reduce tensions after this, saying that they did not want a large-scale war, the threat of a conflict between the two countries breaking out soon still remains very real.
A US Iran conflict could prolong for years with extensive destruction and death and would be highly detrimental for the economies of both countries, as well as the global economy as a whole. The conflict could also spread across the entire Middle Eastern region, contributing to a further destabilization of the region. Given the erratic and unpredictable nature of the Trump administration in the US as well as the brutal nature of the Iranian government, there is still a very realistic chance of this war occurring in the near future. Preventing such a conflict from ever occurring should be a high priority for all the governments of the world.
Photo credits:
https://www.dw.com/en/qassem-soleimani-timeline-of-events-following-iranian-generals-assassination/a-51910195
https://www.wionews.com/opinions-blogs/us-iran-conflict-a-high-stakes-bet-on-who-blinks-first-274636
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